here is what Buffalo NWS is thinking for next week...read the bottom part on the "LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/"...a good description of what is going on...well if you understand what they're saying...bottom line "warming"...
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=NY&prodtype=discussion#AFDBUF
Really cool stuff again Steelie24 ...never read a discusion about lake effect like this before, they really have a handle on what's going on in the micro setting.. Dave Eichorn used to get into discusions like this, made his channel nine forecast interesting..
Cool how they know the little details...
LAKE INSTABILITY PEAKS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CAPE AROUND 450J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NICE BAND TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR SODUS BAY TO NEAR
CATO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
RATES MAY REACH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR BRIEFLY.
THROUGH THE EVENING...THE BACKING WINDS WILL CARRY THIS BAND NORTH
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE BAND WILL PREVENT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...
WITH 4-6 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS EXPECTED. BY LATE EVENING LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY QUICKLY DETERIORATES WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
FALLING TO BELOW 4K FEET BY MIDNIGHT. ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
WAYNE/N CAYUGA/OSWEGO COUNTIES. EXPECT A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE BAND
AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION DURING THE LATE
EVENING. MAY SEE UP TO 3-4 INCHES ON THE WESTERN TUG HILL DUE TO
UPSLOPE...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE REST
OF LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTY SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY FOR
THOSE COUNTIES.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INSTABILITY
FURTHER WEAKENS WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS DOWN BELOW 3K FEET. MAY SEE
LAKE EFFECT END ALTOGETHER FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS EARLY...THEN DROP TO
CHANCE WITH ANY ACCUMS AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND COLD AIR WILL
DEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING ABOVE
6K FEET AFTER 21Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RESURGENCE OF LAKE EFFECT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH WILL START AT 21Z WED FOR THIS.
THIS EVENT WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OF -18/20C H85 AIR
WILL CROSS OVER LAKE ONTARIO. A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING A
3K FT THICK DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION AND A CAP OF ABOUT 10K FT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF LAKE SNOW TO TAKE AIM ON THE
TUG HILL REGION. SINCE NEAR SFC TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -7 TO
-10C (TEENS F)...SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE AROUND 25/30:1. THE
RESULTING LOW DENSITY SNOW WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE...WITH AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIKELY REACHING A FOOT OR MORE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
TUG.
AN EVENT WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY...FETCH AND LACK OF SHEAR WOULD
NORMALLY HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHTNING BUT
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR...IT MAY BE TOO COLD FOR
SIGNIFICANT GRAUPEL PRODUCTION. WHILE THUNDER CAN NEVER BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME.
THE LAKE SNOWS EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BACK THE STEERING FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WILL LIFT THE MAIN SNOW BAND NORTH OF THE TUG HILL...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS CERTAINLY LIKELY FROM THE TUG ACROSS
SRN JEFFERSON COUNTY. A LOWERING CAP SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY
DURING ITS NORTHWARDS DRIFT.
